UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs Volkov Predictions (Reposted)

The final UFC card of June is stacked from top to bottom with excellent fights this afternoon. The final bout will be the surging Ciryl Gane against Alexander Volkov in a big heavyweight main event.

The write-up here will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It details my betting strategy for each fight and a prediction of what kind of bout we see.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values control time and reversals. This new year, DraftKings has also added a quick win bonus for victories in the first minute as well as scoring for non-significant strikes. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value. Optimal GPP builds very rarely stack the same fight but it can be a viable strategy in cash games.

Anthony’s Current Record: 140-100-2 (Last Year 223-145-6)

Fight odds last updated 9:45 AM EST 6-26-2021

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Damir Hadzovic -150 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Yancy Medeiros +125 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: We open the card with a lightweight bout between Yancy Medeiros and Damir Hadzovic. This fight was originally scheduled for several weeks ago, but Hadzovic pulled out at the last minute due to health issues. It is certainly an interesting spot for both fighters but the big question I have entering is the ability of Medeiros. He transitioned from Strikeforce to the UFC more than a decade ago but his resume lacks any real quality wins over high level competition. He has dropped three bouts in a row and has not had his hand raised since the end of 2017. The performances out of Hadzovic have not really been any more impressive, but he is at least taking steps up in competition as he tries to make a name for himself. He looks far superior physically and should have the advantage in this fight while things stay standing. I think his power poses problems for Medeiros here and we see a win for The Bosnian Bomber. Such a prolonged fight camp could cause issues for either fighter, but if this plays out as I expect it Hadzovic should get his hand raised. Damir Hadzovic by Round Two KO

Charles Rosa -170 (DK $8600, FD $18) vs Justin Jaynes +140 (DK $7600, FD $12)

  • Anthony: Next up is a bout at featherweight between Charles Rosa and Justin Jaynes. We saw Jaynes punch his ticket to the UFC with a massive knockout of Frank Camacho as a +230 underdog, but since then Jaynes has been finished three times. The short notice callup may of resulted in Jaynes biting off more than he can chew as he now looks outclassed by other UFC opponents. Camacho has not appeared in the cage since then. Rosa is a talented grappler that should have no problem controlling Jaynes when things hit the mat. On the feet Jaynes is certainly live for an early knockout, but Rosa does a good job staying at the end of his opponent’s strikes. I see him fighting a tactical battle on the feet and eventually finishing Jaynes in a grappling exchange. Jaynes solely has punching power to rely on and that simply is not enough to stack wins in this promotion. Charles Rosa by Round Three Submission

Julia Avila -360 (DK $9300, FD $23) vs Julija Stoliarenko +270 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: The only women’s fight this week takes place at bantamweight between Julia Avila and Julija Stoliarenko. Avila is a very talented mixed martial artist with a wide arsenal of skills. Her standup is exceptional and we often see her overwhelming opponents with high output. While I think Stoliarenko is capable of absorbing most of this damage on the feet, I seriously doubt she returns any fire that can stun or slow down Avila. Her only opportunity in this fight would be securing something in the grappling exchanges. Avila should fight a smart gameplan and dominate here. She was unceremoniously kicked out of her longtime gym between fights but has since had several training sessions with James Krause at Glory MMA. I expect we see a refined version of her in the cage this afternoon. Julia Avila by Decision

Marcin Prachnio -210 (DK $9000, FD $19) vs Ike Villanueva +170 (DK $7200, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Two low-level light heavyweights do battle here as Marcin Prachnio takes on Ike Villanueva. One of these fighter’s will secure their second consecutive UFC win here today while the loser could be in some hot water with the promotion. Villanueva is coming off a knockout win of Vinicius Moreira where an overhand right crumpled the Brazilian. I would say that victory impressed me, but Moreira has now been finished in all four of his UFC bouts. Villanueva got to pick his shots against a fighter less technical than him, but now he will likely be on the back foot a lot again today. Prachnio has decent volume and pressure in this division. He has a size advantage to utilize here and is by far the superior athlete when compared to Villanueva. To win this bout Villanueva will need to land something heavy on Prachnio and I just find that hard to imagine. Not only is Prachnio mobile for a light heavyweight, but also naturally far faster than his 37-year-old opponent. I will have exposure to both sides of this one when building my DFS lineups but think Prachnio is going to get his hand raised when all is said and done. Marcin Prachnio by Round Two KO

Warlley Alves -240 (DK $9200, FD $22) vs Jeremiah Wells +190 (DK $7000, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Next is a welterweight fight between Warlley Alves and Jeremiah Wells. This is the UFC debut for Wells who steps in on short notice for this opportunity. From what I have seen out of him he is very well rounded and I am a fan of the Renzo Gracie Philly gym he represents. It is just going to be difficult for Wells to find much success anywhere in this fight. Alves is a serviceable grappler but on the feet he is lethal. A few consecutive kicks to the body were enough to finish Mounir Lazzez in Alves’ most recent win. He poses a very tall task for a promotional newcomer, and a fighter with only eleven professional fights to his name. I believe that Alves cracks Wells with something strong here in order to end this fight early. The only anchor weighing down Alves’ professional career is his gas tank, but that likely won’t be a factor here against a more inexperienced fighter that has not felt power like this before. Warlley Alves by Round One KO

Shavkat Rakhmonov -350 (DK $9100, FD $22) vs Michael Prazeres +265 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Another welterweight bout follows as Shavkat Rakhmonov will face Michael Prazeres. The undefeated Rakhmonov is a prospect that I will be watching very closely going forward. He dominated Alex Oliveira in his last time out, winning by first round submission in his UFC debut. It is sometimes difficult to gauge the talent of fighters previously in the M-1 promotion but Rakhmonov has all the tools needed to thrive at this level. He is a very large welterweight which is going to be prevalent in this fight for sure, boasting a ten-inch reach advantage. He has great striking, putting together longer combinations and landing power on opponents both early and often. Against Prazeres, striking at range will certainly be the gameplan. He should have no problem standing and trading in this bout, but Prazares does carry a lot of power himself in that stockier frame. If he were to eat a few shots, Rakhmonov could always rely on his combat sambo background and take this to the mat as needed. I fully expect Rakhmonov to win here and will be backing the fighter from Kazakhstan in what should be another dominant performance. Shavkat Rakhmonov by Decision

Kennedy Nzechukwu -130 (DK $8200, FD $16) vs Danilo Marques +110 (DK $8000, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The prelims close with a light heavyweight bout between Danilo Marques and Kennedy Nzechukwu. The March win over Carlos Ulberg really opened some eyes about Kennedy Nzechukwu, myself included. It was a very interesting bout as Nzechukwu displayed excellent striking defense and poise, ultimately coming alive in the second round and winning by knockout. With Sayif Saud in his corner he becomes one of the more intimidating fighters at this weight. He has all of the physical ability and technical skills one would want out of their star pupil. Marques is primarily a grappler and will be looking to ground Nzechukwu in this fight. His wins have been dominant but do not come over the most impressive names on the UFC roster. I feel like the 78 percent takedown defense for Nzechukwu holds up here. He and Coach Saud should have been drilling grappling all camp and I expect Nzechukwu to keep things standing in order to remove the threat of submissions. He is the more powerful striker than Marques and by fighting smart once again he can certainly get the job done. Both fighters garner massive appeal for DFS as they likely score high with a win. Kennedy Nzechukwu by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Renato Moicano -250 (DK $9400, FD $20) vs Jai Herbert +200 (DK $6800, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with an exciting lightweight bout between Renato Moicano and Jai Herbert. Herbert had two solid rounds logged against Francisco Trinaldo in his UFC debut, but was ultimately finished in the third round after a punch turned his lights out. He is a talented striker hailing from Cage Warriors and boasting eight professional wins by knockout. It is very unlikely we need the scorecards in this fight as Moicano is a potent finisher too. The jiu jitsu blackbelt will certainly have an opportunity to wrap up Herbert if things hit the mat. However, Moicano also has good standup. He throws a wide arsenal of strikes and does well scoring points on opponents no matter where the fight takes place. My play here would be the under. Both fighters are a bit hard to trust and laying this much juice with Moicano just feels like the wrong move. I do see him finishing Herbert but it would be no surprise at all if The Black Country Banger gets the job done. Each have very clear paths to victory. Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission

Tim Means -130 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Nicolas Dalby +110 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: One of the toughest fights to call on this card is a welterweight scrap between Tim Means and Nicolas Dalby. It is not often that I will side with Means as my pick, but this is a fight he certainly can take over. The past two wins have been very impressive for Means who was able to control both Laureano Staropoli and Mike Perry. He is a very well-rounded fighter and against Dalby today, he should find more openings than usual to make headway in the standup. Dalby’s forward pressure does not always work to his advantage and I see Means landing the most meaningful shots in this fight when Dalby closes the distance on him. It is expected that Dalby can outmuscle means on the mat, but we thought the same of Mike Perry and Means successfully defended four of five takedowns. I doubt he can finish Dalby, but believe he can once again impress the judges and get his hand raised here. Tim Means by Decision

Andre Fili -250 (DK $8900, FD $21) vs Daniel Pineda +200 (DK $7300, FD $10)

  • Anthony: At featherweight we will see Andre Fili step into the cage to face Daniel Pineda. I like the style that Pineda fights with but after his recent loss to Cub Swanson I am a bit worried to back him going forward. He is really a striker by trade and especially in this matchup Pineda will need to keep things standing. Fili is a credentialed wrestler with some excellent top pressure we often see him employ. He trains out of Team Alpha Male which is arguably the best gym for wrestlers under 170 pounds. While his last fight out was a loss to Bryce Mitchell, he once again holds the grappling advantage and I fully expect him to bring this fight to the mat where he believes it belongs. It should be a back and forth first round on the feet, but Fili should be able to grind out Pineda late in this fight if he is unable to get the finish first. The cardio for Pineda has been an issue before and against a tank like Fili I see him really struggling as the clock continues to tick down. The finish is likely for both fighters here but I think Fili likely takes whatever action necessary to get his hand raised today. Andre Fili by Decision

Raoni Barcelos -220 (DK $8800, FD $21) vs Timur Valiev +175 (DK $7400, FD $10)

  • Anthony: The featured bout is a bantamweight matchup between Raoni Barcelos and Timur Valiev. These are two high action fighters in the division who enter today’s scrap with a combined three losses. It is going to be a very technical war and I am as excited about this fight as any other on the card. Barcelos has been a machine, mowing through five UFC opponents already. He has incredibly diverse striking and a blackbelt in BJJ to rely on as well. Against somebody like Valiev I could see him striking at range and really picking his shots, similar to an O’Malley or Yanez in this division. While Valiev is also a highly touted prospect, I view him a little bit behind Barcelos in the development process. The cage time for Barcelos in the UFC included some very tough outs and I think it is fair to call him the further refined of the two. Valiev is no slouch though and it is shocking to see these odds as wide as they are. I will be glued to the television for this fight and expect it to be very back and forth, but ultimately Barcelos should be the one getting his hand raised once again. Raoni Barcelos by Decision

Tanner Boser -175 (DK $8300, FD $19) vs Ovince Saint Preux +145 (DK $7900, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The co-main event takes place at heavyweight between Tanner Boser and Ovince Saint Preux. This is a short notice fight that came together after OSP’s original opponent Maxin Grishin withdrew. That fight was set to take place at 205 pounds but when Boser threw his name into the hat as a late replacement, these two men agreed to lock horns at the heavyweight limit instead. Boser is coming off of two losses by decision and seems angry heading into this matchup. His contract has already been extended, but I expect we see more active hands from Boser here. He should feel confident moving forward against a true light heavyweight, but I still give Saint Preux the grappling advantage here despite the size discrepancy. If he is able to ground Boser at any point, he should find success advancing position and possibly even finding a finish on the mat. Things will be challenging for OSP on the feet but he at the very least has power to match that of most heavyweights. Let’s hope that if things do remain upright, Boser is a bit more active than he has been lately. All the value seems to be on the underdog in this spot so I will lock him in. The ceiling is certainly there for OSP making him an attractive play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Ovince Saint Preux by Round Two Submission

Ciryl Gane -165 (DK $8700, FD $20) vs Alexander Volkov +135 (DK $7500, FD $17)

  • Anthony: We arrive at this evening’s main event, a heavyweight bout between Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov. It is a massive fight for the division as the winner will be primed for a title eliminator in his next time out. The undefeated Gane has been making me money since his UFC debut, but had his least impressive performance most recently against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He won all five rounds of that bout but it was an extremely boring fight as both men primarily stood and threw faints at one another. I do not mind Gane remaining hesitant against one of the best counter strikers in the promotion, but now facing Volkov the volume will certainly need to increase. We will likely see Gane pressuring more in this fight as Volkov finds a lot of success behind his boxing. The Russian is built like a welterweight or middleweight, just much bigger. He moves quickly and often beats opponents in this weight class thanks to his speed. That is one advantage that he lacks in this bout as Gane is just as agile and illusive. I see this being back and forth and do fear the straight punches of Volkov connecting and hurting Gane. However, I have to stick to the hype train and back Bon Gamin here. He is undefeated for a reason and the inexperience really is not significant given the opponents he has shared the cage with already. Volkov’s recent victories are not even as impressive as those of Gane. He should be able to trade with Volkov on the feet and has a massive advantage on the mat if things do go there. Ciryl Gane by Round Three KO

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